Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the AstroNamur Acquisition Prediction System
Author : Dr TTF, Dr Teca, members of Astronamur Meterology Research Association
Abstract :
The AFS (Acquisition Forecast Skill) method developed by Astronamur Meterology Research Association, in predicting precipitation probabilities is discussed.
This method, showing the weather impacts of a (small) group of people actions in a dedicated world region, could largely influence all global weather prediction
models for coming next years.
Four methods are deeply analyzed using acquisition signal theory and reliability diagrams to define objective measure of predictive skill.
First, "Forum" extracted information around acquisition signal, which is the main indicator in future precipitation occurence.
Results clearly indicate that North of Europe will be largely influenced by a newcoming perturbation (1 to 4 day, max)
Skillful prediction of precipitation amounts [i.e., lower or over 2 mm (12 h)−1] up to forecast in next 6 days high precipitation amounts
[i.e., between 2 and 10 mm (12 h)−1] will be discussion around statistics elements.
Second, Accuracy AFS during 2005-2015 period (including newcoming 2016 elements) will be deeply analyzed.
We clearly see a gain in predictability up to 3 days for the highest [5 and 10 mm (12 h)−1] amounts of precipitation.
Third, the AFS performance during several year periods is analyzed. Two issues are investigated: the seasonal variability of acquisition influence on global Norh European regions
and the impact of the predictability in agriculture, science and tourism activites.
Four, we evaluate the prediction performance around a "acquisition types". The comparison of the performance of this AFP system during winter 2014/2015
indicates that the AFS is more skillful during winter than during summer, with differences in predictive skill around 3 days for precipitation amounts larger than 2 mm (12 h)−1.
The comparison of the AFS performance before and after several "critical dates" and acquisition "types" shows a direct link between elements.
Corresponding author address: Dr. T. TTF, AstroNamur Research Park, Belgium
Email: ttf@beastro.be
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